Thursday, October 15, 2009

Krispy Kreme Puts - again

Guess what I shorted this morning?
KKD has recently shot up on strong volume for no apparent reason. Trading at 14x a stable EBITDA, it surely is overvalued. It may be that a sale of the company or other event is in the works, and people in the know have purchased the stock ahead of the crowd. Or, it could be just a head fake. I put a small sum into this trade so if they get bought out at $5 it's no biggie. Recently the company has closed some of its stores and expanded their commitment to the small-store concept. Still, EBITDA will not double magically.

This is my first post in 3 months and I haven't much else to say. On the right side of this blog is the Volcker article from 2005. I suggest reading it again four and half years later. I am impressed with its relevance.

3 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

What is your opinion on CROX? Thanks in advance

12:09 AM  
Blogger Eyal Bar said...

CROX is one of the things that I'll always regret not shorting. I actually was not aware that the stock is back up from the dead, so I have no knowledge of what their story is. They have a new CEO who wants to do a turn-around. Put it this way: at an EV/sales of 0.7x it's probably not wildly undervalued or overvalued...

3:35 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks, i was just as surprised

6:06 AM  

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